This post was co-authored by Dr. Astrid Caldas
What is your morning routine? Wake up, maybe make coffee, tea, or other morning beverage or meal, check the weather. It is something most people do in the US—office workers, outdoor workers, farmers, fishermen, stay-at-home folks. No matter what one’s life is like, most of us are going to go outside, and most of us check the weather. This is how we, at least partially, assess how our day will go, what we’re going to wear, what activities we will be able to perform, how easy or dreary the commute will be, etc.
This is true for days with uneventful weather, but when extreme weather is in the forecast for the next few days or weeks, weather information becomes critical—even life-saving. Your morning newscasters or social media feeds typically give you “stay cool” tips in advance of a heat wave, or a hurricane warning for your coastal city may show you maps or list areas under mandatory evacuation order due to projected dangerous storm surge.
But the reliance on that straightforward, taken-for-granted information may be imperiled. President Trump and unelected individuals designated by him are taking aim at scientists and illegally taking over infrastructure responsible for creating and issuing weather conditions and alerts—the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The blueprint for many of the Trump administration’s actions, Project 2025, calls for dismantling and privatizing some of its essential services.
Is having extreme weather information critical? Absolutely. Do we know what happened in the days before modern weather information systems were available to warn the public about extreme weather? We sure do. The Great Blizzard of 1888, for example, dropped as much as 58 inches of snow and “paralyzed the East Coast from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine to the Atlantic provinces of Canada.” Transportation via cars, trains, and boats was severely impacted, more than 400 people died, and melting snow after the storm severely flooded areas of the US Northeast. Having advance information about the location and magnitude of an extreme weather event is an essential component of strategies to stay safe, from households to first responders to businesses, to government at all levels.
The prospect of dismantling the systems and jobs that make this information available is alarming on many fronts. The impacts could be so far-reaching that it is hard to understand why such a move is even being considered. Below are just a few things that will be impacted if the Trump administration follows through with the plans laid out in Project 2025 for dismantling NOAA.
Extreme weather alerts and forecasts
Without NOAA’s freely-available data for all who currently use it to create daily and multi-day forecasts, everyday people will find themselves at a loss about preparing for weather. With extreme weather becoming more extreme due to human-caused climate change, it is essential that communities know what is coming in order to prepare adequately.
Emergency response agencies, business owners, outdoor workers, farmers, fishermen, parents, caretakers, and everyday folks, all need to know what is coming so they can adjust their activities accordingly. How is your kids’ school principal supposed to know when it’s going to be too hot for children to play outside so they can plan to keep them indoors during a heatwave? What happens when a winter storm demands that roads are salted in anticipation of snowy and icy conditions—but transportation authorities can’t access information about when and how much ice, sleet, or snow will accumulate? How is a coastal community supposed to know what level of storm to prepare for or what areas to issue evacuation orders for?
Hurricane forecasts
Due to climate change, hurricanes are more destructive: they’re stronger, they drop more rain, they hang around in one place for longer to do more damage from flooding and rain, and they intensify more rapidly, sometimes with horrifying speed.
To counter these impacts, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center provides data that saves lives and allows for preparedness at the local, regional and federal levels. Evacuations, shelters, infrastructure protections all depend on knowing with certainty the likelihood that a hurricane will make landfall. And NOAA’s forecasts and storm-tracking ability is getting better.
In 2022, NOAA assessed its forecasts and storm-tracking ability and found that since 2000, it had reduced its average 72-hour storm tracking error by 57%, while its error rate in predicting storm intensity had dropped by 40%. All these improvements would not be possible without proper funding and science, and without these improvements, forecasts would not be as confident as they are now, helping prevent loss of life and property across the United States. These forecasts were invaluable during the 2024 hurricane season, when NOAA’s accurate and early storm tracks for Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton prompted early evacuation orders and preparedness that saved lives and property.
Rain, fire, drought
In addition to data for weather forecasts, the National Weather Service (a division of NOAA) provides data for daily wildfire, precipitation and drought outlooks for the entire United States. It also provides other severe weather outlooks and an overview of winter and tropical maritime conditions. The latter identifies current and expected activity in the Atlantic Ocean related to the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes.
Fisheries
The information created by NOAA’s scientists goes beyond weather and the US borders, as it is used domestically and internationally to protect and project fisheries’ yields and determine legal catch sizes. This is done through the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), whose goals are to maintain and protect ocean ecosystems for both natural ecosystem equilibrium and sustainable fishing.
NOAA science also informs about escalating climate impacts
The plan to dismantle NOAA could not come at a more perilous time for people facing threats to their lives and property from extreme weather and climate change.
NOAA reported that during 2024, at least 568 lives were lost in 27 separate disasters that each cost at least $1 billion in the US, for a whopping total of at least $182.7 billion. These costs continue to climb year after year as wildfires, floods, hurricanes, droughts, and heat waves decimate communities across the country.
Whether you accept climate change science or not, you cannot erase your risk in a warmed and warming world (read here for ten signs of climate change). One of our most powerful tools against fierce, deadly weather is the ability to predict where it will affect us. That is what this administration threatens to take away.
NOAA is paid by the people, for the people, not special interests
Fishermen on the Eastern shore of Maryland are feeling the pressure of climate change impacts on their yield and seasons. Farmers across the Midwest are reeling from droughts and floods. Outdoor workers are dying from extreme heat. Schools are not letting children out to play on extremely hot days.
The number of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters keeps increasing: the 1980–2024 annual average is 9 events; the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2020–2024) is 23 events. The consequences of climate change and its impact on people, the economy, and infrastructure cannot be ignored by attacking an agency that actively helps prepare for said impacts with reliable, freely available data.
NOAA is the go-to agency for scientifically-accurate global and regional atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The data collected by NOAA is used in forecasts and projections that save lives across the country.
As we’ve said before, NOAA creates and advances climate science research to lay the unbiased, scientific bedrock of data and information for decision and policy-making that can deliver for us a climate-resilient future. We need to invest in and support—not dismantle—their mission to understand climate change to benefit current and future generations.
NOAA belongs to us, is paid by us, and cannot be taken away from us. Why is Congress allowing an unelected billionaire to unleash his private army of tech goons on NOAA and illegally enter and usurp its functions and information technology systems? If Congress does not put a stop to this, one day we may wake up without extreme weather alert information. One day, we may wake up to a terrible storm we should have seen coming.